June 16th, 2006为什么我感觉黄金还没有跌完
技术分析有个不足之处。就是在市场突变的时候。技术分析不work.
市场在很强的trend的时候，通道理论。MA, Bollingers Bonds都work,但市场经常会有短期快速的突变，这时候看以往的任何pattern都不可能work.
总有一个MA可以拖住市场的底部，只要你找对参考点，市场都是回调到50%或者0。618的价位。所以前提是关键。理论没有完全可靠的。
从去年年底开始这一轮黄金牛市，50%已经破了，所以有理由认为黄金市场在更大的时间尺度上做回调，很可能要对从2001年开始的牛市做一个整体的回调。
June 16th, 2006 at 6:28 pm
标题:看VOLUME的变化率行不行？
偶不懂的。
June 16th, 2006 at 7:25 pm
标题:[转帖]The 50% Rule
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye061406.html
CHARTWORKS - JUN 12, 2006
Precious Metals
Technical observations of [email protected]
Bob Hoye
Institutional Advisors
written Jun 12, 2006
posted Jun 14, 2006
Gold and silver are now into the time window that satisfies a nominal correction from the May highs. An assessment of the technicals suggests that support should be found at $570 in gold and 123 (more importantly 114) in the XAU. Silver could bottom as early as June 13th.
The Big Picture
As long as gold holds above $460 the major bull market is considered to be in motion. This allows for a 50% correction ($493) of the complete rally from $255, a test of the support line (on a deflated basis) and a test of the 50-month moving average. This permits a cleanout similar to the equity’’s market correction of 1987. Such a ‘’financial panic'’ would not alter the long term picture of an extended bull market into the next decade.
click on chart to enlarge
Gold vs Commodities
Gold became overbought relative to the CRB basket of commodities as of May and is now down 18% in the past four weeks. This matches a similar break in July 1980 following a top in the Gold/CRB at 2.35. A 23% correction occurred twice in 1983 from high Gold/CRB ratios. In today’’s environment such a percentage decline would produce a low of $562.
click on chart to enlarge
The 50% Rule
Gold has an uncanny tendency to make 50% corrective pullbacks while in bull markets. The key is from which starting point to measure the correction. The use of an RSI(14) on weekly charts can be used to establish the last time the price was into a neutral or oversold condition. Readings below 45 have been successful for this exercise. On that basis we can use the move from $410 of one year ago to this year’’s high and establish an optimum target of $571. In some instances the price will bounce marginally for a week, top out below the midpoint of the preceding bounce and then take out the low by 1% before making a sustainable rally. This type of ‘’spring'’ or ‘’isolated low'’ is quite common in gold. Therefore a bounce off the initial low (assumed to be around $571) should allow for a close into the mid $560′’s as part of the basing process.
On the upside, the initial rally into the summer should retrace 40% to 60% of the decline from $730. Assuming that prices reverse from around $571, the initial upside resistance should be in the range of $635 to $665.
Looking down the road. . . following a recovery from this selloff it is imperative that these lows hold over the coming months otherwise we could be in for a correction of the complete advance from 2001. This would provide support at $493.
Previous examples
1972 to 1975
1977 to 1980
1986 to 1990
Silver
Sequential Buy Setups are common at the end of corrective phases in the bull market of silver. If prices close below $11.84 through Tuesday then we will have had nine consecutive days with closes below the low of four days earlier and a ‘’setup'’ will be in place.
Seasonally, this market comes out of the weak period by the end of June and has a tendency to do well through September.
Following significant tops in the past three decades the silver market has managed to produce an oversold reading of -200 in the CCI(20) at the end of most corrections. A subsequent upside reversal through -100 confirms that the bottom is in place. Risk can then be controlled 2% below the corresponding low. (The index is currently at -155)
Since April 19th three key supports were anticipated to be the 34-day, 100-day and 89-week moving averages. Thursday and Friday’’s action is into support and if prices can reverse to close above $11.40 this week then the upside target becomes $13.60.
XAU
Most major corrective lows in the XAU occur around the Fibonacci retracement point of 61.8%. On this basis, the targeted support is 114. The current low has been at 123, a 50% correction of the past twelve month’’s rally.
Previous examples
Technical comments on individual stocks
-Bob Hoye
Institutional Advisors
email [email protected]
website: www.institutionaladvisors.com
CHARTWORKS - JUN 12, 2006
The opinions in this report are solely those of the author. The information herein was obtained from various sources; however we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This research report is prepared for general circulation and is circulated for general information only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors should note that income from such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each security’’s price or value may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer to buy or sell any securities or options or futures contracts. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or related investment mentioned in this report. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, whose values are influenced by the currency of the underlying security, effectively assume currency risk.
Moreover, from time to time, members of the Institutional Advisors team may be long or short positions discussed in our publications.
321gold Inc
June 16th, 2006 at 11:41 pm
标题:美国的利率到了5.5%谁买黄金?
以前买黄金的资金来自日本，日本的央行0%利率每天提供30兆亿日元，现在只有8兆，以后会保持在6兆——过度流动性结束了
June 17th, 2006 at 7:26 am
标题:1980年黄金TOP的时候美国利率在10%以上。
June 17th, 2006 at 9:18 am
标题:这轮行情结束了！接下来除了小反弹就是阴跌，没有大行情了。
金属期货已经涨得太过分了！如果铜还敢再超越前期高点，那各个国家的辅币将被商人们买了去熔炼后按金属价值销售而不是按货币价格去评价了！黄金也已经到头了！
June 17th, 2006 at 10:14 am
标题:那时，通货膨胀很严重，买黄金保值是必然的选择，还有阿富汗战争，现在？
June 17th, 2006 at 10:37 am
标题:Fed Chairman, Arthur Burns, popularized the concept of "core
CPI " to avoid raising rate in early 1970s.
If I remember correctly, he is Dr. Greenspan’’s Ph.D. advisor.
Dr. Greenspan formalized the "core CPI" as a policy tool.
The result of using "core CPI" gave Chairman Burns the execuse to delay the
interest hike until things just become out of control.
The market is just forward looking base on history.
June 17th, 2006 at 10:52 am
标题:老兄觉得这篇东西如何？
http://atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/HF17Dj01.html
June 17th, 2006 at 2:06 pm
标题:经济基本面和市场未必有直接的联系
我不懂经济。
June 17th, 2006 at 2:07 pm
标题:这篇文章相当不错
June 17th, 2006 at 2:09 pm
标题:在我看来，下个月的机会极为少见！
June 17th, 2006 at 11:53 pm
标题:Thanks for the link.
Another friend also showed me the article. I did not read it before you showed again.
I have one thing to say about Mr. Paulson. He is great and he knows the market. However, he is not Mr. Rubin. That is a subtle difference.
Also President Bush is not President Cliton. The fiscal environment is
so different.
Things might not be going easily to what Mr. Paulson wants to move.
June 18th, 2006 at 5:41 am
标题:I don’t think Paulson can have this initiative accomplished
under the current lame duck admin.
However, I do think it is doable under the NEXT admin. USD hegemony as coined by Liu is sure a national asset. 2008 is an interesting year to watch, before that, commodity may reach a new height since BB is already softening on his stance, at least according to his latest public speech.
June 18th, 2006 at 12:10 pm
标题:There isn’t a spending bill that president bush does not
like. In fact, even president johnson would be proud in front of him.
As a conservative, I do not know what to say. ONe of the causes of hyperinflation in 1970s was Viet war and president johnson’’s social welware
program. We are seeing similiar things happening now. Imprudent fiscal policy played an VERY important role back then and right now. In fact, some of my friends are feeling sorry for Dr. Bernake, because they feel the inflation is more fiscal than monetary. There is very little Dr. Bernake can do,
besides temporarily, yet he has to pretend that he is doing something.
June 23rd, 2006 at 6:29 am
标题:America is lucky this time since China and other Asia nation
nations are footing the bill for irresponsible fiscal policy in America.