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上点儿空试试 -- theoretical - (337 Byte) 2010-3-04 周四, 07:20 (1592 reads)

theoretical
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标题: From the Editors of "Leeb's Ground Floor Trader (351 reads) 时间: 2010-3-04 周四, 08:03

作者：theoretical 在青蛙园地发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com

Market Forecast: From the Editors of "Leeb's Ground Floor Trader"

The economy continues to generate contradictory data that, by itself, does not point toward strong recovery. For example, the Commerce Department reported yesterday that personal spending rose by $52.4 billion, or 0.5 percent, in January, up from an upward-revised 0.3 percent increase in December. This exceeded economists’ expectations by one-tenth of a percentage point.

However, growth in personal income remained stagnant, rising by $11.4 billion, or 0.1 percent, in the first month of the year and falling short of an expected 0.4 percent jump. This follows a downward-revised 0.3 percent increase in December. Making matters worse, disposable personal income dropped by $47.6 billion, or 0.4 percent, at the beginning of the year, even though private wages and salaries rose by $16.1 billion. The combination of higher personal spending and lower after-tax income meant that the U.S. savings rate dropped from 4.2 percent in December to 3.3 percent in January.

Needless to say, this data raises further doubts about the potential for a consumer-led recovery. Domestic consumption and income growth have been tempered by a dismal job market, and the drop in the savings rate is most likely only temporary. Consumers are still trying to dig themselves out from the vast amount of debt they incurred during the consumption binge of the last decade. It will take time before we see any meaningful improvement in domestic consumption

Things aren’t so rosy for Greece either as their debt problems is still a source of concern for many investors. It is expected that tomorrow the Greek government will outline a plan to reduce the country’s budget deficit by four percentage points this year. The goal, as set by the Greek government, is to cut the budget deficit from 12.7 percent of GDP in 2009 to 8.7 percent this year and below 3 percent in 2012.

While the government had issued a proposal in January that would produce savings of between 8 billion and 10 billion euros, European Union officials weren’t entirely satisfied. The European Union, which had indicated it would step in and provide support to Greece if necessary, has asked for more spending cuts and tax increases. Tomorrow’s proposal is expected to shrink the budget gap by another 4.8 billion euros.

An important test for Greece will be the issuance of a new ten-year bond that the government is now working on. While the government hopes to raise between 3 billion and 5 billion euros from the sale, the issuance will also be an important measure of the market’s confidence in Greece’s ability to pay down its debt.

On a brighter note, the prospects for Australia and its iron ore producers are encouraging, especially in light of China’s strong appetite for raw materials. This is according to a new report from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural Resource Economics, which estimates that export earnings from iron ore will rise 21 percent to $35 billion (AUD) next fiscal year, ending June 30, 2011. However, the report also forecasts that earnings will drop by 15 percent to $29 billion (AUD) this fiscal year.

The annual growth rate in iron ore exports is expected to be 7 percent per year until 2015, at which point Australian production will account for 42 percent of the world’s iron ore trade. Next fiscal year Australia will sell 422 million metric tons abroad, up 6.3 percent from this fiscal year, and much of that production will be going to China, which is now the world’s leading manufacturer of steel. There, it is expected that another 659 million tons of steel will be produced next calendar year and that steel consumption will increase to 812 million tons, or by 9 percent per year, by 2015. This should come as no surprise, given the large investments the Chinese government has made in infrastructure development.

Until Next Week,

作者：theoretical 在青蛙园地发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com

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