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 [原创]Few points to make regarding John's letter.. |
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天凉好个哈糗
头衔: 海归上校
声望: 教授
加入时间: 2006/03/27
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作者：天凉好个哈糗 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
1. Iceland offered guarantee on all size of the deposits so that the money did not flow out of their countries to cause the potential bank run.
As John pointed out, for now between EU countries and US, which one u would like to deposit you money in? Probably still in the US. That is why what we are seeing now is the EU banks got hit by a silent run from depositors. However the picture is going to change if more and more Governments are starting to make the promise of guarantees in EU cos of the easy Game Theory oriented move, US’s new 250,000 limit is definitely not enough to keep the fund.
So all in all, we are probably going to see the insurance to be expanded to all the deposits of all size worldwide (Western disaster world, that of course), to restore the confidence of depositors.
Two things need to be noted: A. Time horizon of this deposit guarantee. This will not be made FOREVER but rather for a period of time, say maybe 6 months to 1 year. B. What the Iceland government is not doing correctly might be that they also include the new deposit under the scheme, which I would suggest to be only the existing ones. And that should also be the case for other countries.
2. Personally I do not like Buffett at all. Don’t get me wrong, I respected what he has done but he is just not my cup of tea, again personally only. But I have to say what a SUPER FANTASTIC deals that he got from both GE and GS… I envied the deals that he did, completely. You can never get deals better than that, ie buying the best quality of the companies @ a distressed level and having them giving you warrants right in the money for a time value of up to 5 YEARS, 5 YEARS! A delta around 55 call option with 5 years to expire for a best financial firm in the world and in history.
Fcuk, that is such a good deal.
But if you look at the other side of coin, u can see how bad the picture is. Even GS and GE have to pay the piker that much to get the fund, how frozen our credit market is?
3. Relaxing mark to market?
I am strongly on the other side of this. Adding this on now might not be a necessary method to avert the crisis since you stock price has been down a good % from the peak now (Got more to fall, that I know my friends). But try to make it a good rule to keep, as not to mark to the market any more is never acceptable for a simple reason. On the bull way up, u marked all ur shits to the market to gain huge amount of bonus but for now, when it comes to the bear one, u tried not to mark ‘em fairly at all? I would say that is the only deal that I can think of better than Buffett’s one.
Stop selling me the idea that it is needed for now cos we need to buy time for the banks, stop ur bull sh1ts on this please cos even if we loose this, it is not gonna help too much to solve the urgency of frozen credit market, it is just a way from those greedy guys to try to take advantage of this rescue plan.
That is NOT URGENT at all!!!
作者：天凉好个哈糗 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 [原创]Few points to make regarding John's letter.. -- 天凉好个哈糗 - (2952 Byte) 2008-10-05 周日, 12:44 (1390 reads)
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