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 [原创]周小川这个主意靠不靠谱？有一点我不明白。 |
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黄埔半期
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作者：黄埔半期 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
老周要创一个世界货币（详文见下），因为美元欧元太麻烦。
我的问题是，谁来定各国货币和世界货币的汇率？自由交换么？操作上说，可以简单点。但经济上说，我怎么觉得没什么区别？比如现在RMB对USD 的汇率， 到世界货币WD那时候，RMB:USD = (RMB/WD):(USD/WD) 是个恒等式呀？
Zhou Xiaochuan, head of the People's Bank of China, proposed the creation a new international reserve currency in an essay published on the central bank's Web site on Monday.
The proposal is the latest sign of tension between China and the U.S. over important global economic matters. Zhou is expected to attend the Group of 20 meeting in London on April 2 where reform of the global financial system is on the table.
"The desirable goal of reforming the international monetary system, therefore, is to create an international reserve currency that is disconnected from individual nations and is able to remain stable in the long run, thus removing the inherent deficiencies caused by using credit-based national currencies," Zhou wrote in the essay, according to its English translation on the central bank's Web site.
A super-sovereign reserve currency managed by a global institution could be used to both create and control the global liquidity, Zhou wrote.
"And when a country's currency is no longer used as the yardstick for global trade and as the benchmark for other currencies, the exchange rate policy of the country would be far more effective in adjusting economic imbalances," he said. "This will significantly reduce the risks of a future crisis and enhance crisis management capability."
Zhou suggested that the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Right (SDR) should be given a greater role. The SDR is an international reserve asset, created by the IMF in 1969 to support the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate system. Its value is based on a basket of key international currencies.
"Today, the SDR has only limited use as a reserve asset, and its main function is to serve as the unit of account of the IMF and some other international organizations," says an IMF fact sheet. "The SDR is neither a currency, nor a claim on the IMF.
China's Zhou, however, said that "the SDR has the features and potential to act as a super-sovereign reserve currency."
Dollar's role 'secure as ever'
China has the world's biggest foreign exchange reserves, and it is also the biggest holder of U.S. Treasury securities.
Axel Merk, president and chief investment officer at Merk Investments, said that Zhou's views "reflect China's frustration in relying on the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency, when U.S. policy makers conduct monetary policy based on domestic considerations."
"That's a friendly way of expressing that the U.S. may be trying to debase the dollar, raising concern in China about the value of its massive U.S. dollar denominated reserves," Merk said in a research note.
Central banks around the world won't be willing to yield power to a new world monetary authority, specifically the IMF, Merk said.
"We believe China may realize sooner rather than later that building a diversified basket of reserves followed by a free floating exchange rate, will provide China with the advantages China's central bank governor is seeking," he said.
Marc Chandler, currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman, said that China has not sought to undermine the U.S. dollar.
"Just as important is what China is not saying," Chandler said. "It is not saying it will dump dollars. It is not saying it will buy more euros."
The support for a new international reserve asset seems to be an attempt to get around the contradictory pressures on a national currency that is also a reserve asset, he said.
"The dollar's role seems as secure as ever," Chandler said. "There is no clear national alternative and a new international asset cannot simply be foisted on countries. The dollar remains numeraire, imperfections and all." End of Story
Polya Lesova is a New York-based reporter for MarketWatch.
作者：黄埔半期 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 [原创]周小川这个主意靠不靠谱？有一点我不明白。 -- 黄埔半期 - (4076 Byte) 2009-3-25 周三, 09:20 (1568 reads)
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