| 作者 |
 从老狼关于中美房市的一个根本假设说起。我的一些看法, 供讨论。 |
 |
TTFan
头衔: 海归上校
声望: 讲师
加入时间: 2005/04/07
文章: 649
海归分: 70737
|
|
|
作者：TTFan 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
从老狼的一个根本架设说起。我的一些看法, 供讨论。
老郎在文中说：供求关系决定价格，价格最终必会向价值回归。这两条是经典经济学的基本原理。但是把这两条原理用在中国的现状上却是自相矛盾的。先说，价格回归价值。这个原理的一个隐性假设条件是，供应基本满足需求，如在美国。在这种条件下，价格最终是会向价值回归的。但在中国，供需平衡的假设并不成立的。在中国有多少人需要住房？而中国政府每年拿出来出让的土地面积是多少？这两者之间的差距是巨大的。
拼音输入汉字太累太慢了，下面用英文了。
Hence the precondition for the ultimate price-value parity does not hold in China due to the severe imbalance between supply and demand. As a result, the “value” of a house in China is re-defined from that in a different market condition, e.g., the US.
Now the question: how can the people in China afford to buy these houses with price tags seemingly astronomical in comparison to the average income in China? In answering this question, one needs to do a perspective switch, I think. One needs to stop focusing on the general mass, who are in no position to pick up the price tag, but rather to turn ones attention to the portion of the population who can. This portion of the population consists of three main segments. The first segment is the overseas Chinese and foreigners in China. The second segment is “the nouveau rich.” The third segment is the general “middle-class” white-collar Chinese. While the first 2 segments are the most obvious forces, the third segment, in my opinion, is actually the biggest collection of bill payers. Why? How can their meager income afford to pay for the sky-high price tags? Well, the secret lies in the so-called mandatory “住房公积金.” This is the portion of the salary that is automatically deducted monthly from each individual’s salary and goes to a fund. This fund, while belonging to the individual, it can only be used for house purchase and nothing else. In another word, unless one takes this money out of the bank and buys a house, this money is dead. In reality, a lot of employers also give contributions, and quite often, supplemental contribution (“ 补充住房公积金“) to this fund. Taking Shanghai as an example, a white-collar worker, after working for several years in a decent job, will have around RMB80-100k in the fund. Using this money and some additional help from their generous parents on both sides, a young couple can quite easily afford the 20% down payment of a house with a price tag of RMB1.5-2 million. This translates to an apartment of 80-150 square meters in a decent section of the city. After the down payment, the couple just need to shell out a few thousand RMB in addition to the monthly “住房公积金” to cover the monthly mortgage. By this calculation, one can see it’s not exceedingly difficult for a young couple with decent jobs in China to jump on the housing bandwagon. With the huge population China, this “middle-class” while-collar youngster crowd forms a vast and never-ending source of demand, the main driving force, I believe, behind China’s housing market.
Not that I think the current housing price in China is fair or healthy. I do believe, however, China's “housing bubble”, if one can calls it such, will sustain in the foreseeable future. In that regard, as long as the urbanization process continues in China and the supply of housing land remains scarce, I remain “bullish” on China’s housing market.
作者：TTFan 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
|
|
|
| 返回顶端 |
|
 |
|
-
 从老狼关于中美房市的一个根本假设说起。我的一些看法, 供讨论。 -- TTFan - (3140 Byte) 2009-7-28 周二, 18:32 (3856 reads) - 。。。。 -- CYH - (0 Byte) 2009-7-30 周四, 21:06 (475 reads)
- 对老狼的错误居然同意 -- 筋斗云 - (71 Byte) 2009-7-28 周二, 20:07 (747 reads)
- 星之. -- 瘦马西风 - (0 Byte) 2009-7-28 周二, 21:13 (443 reads)
|
|
|
|
您不能在本论坛发表新主题, 不能回复主题, 不能编辑自己的文章, 不能删除自己的文章, 不能发表投票, 您 不可以 发表活动帖子在本论坛, 不能添加附件不能下载文件, |
|
|
