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 <华尔街日报〉China's Wild Swings Can Roil the Global Economy |
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底特律汽车人
头衔: 海归少校
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加入时间: 2005/08/13
文章: 129
来自: Metro Detroit, Michigan
海归分: 10374
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作者：底特律汽车人 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
China's Wild Swings Can Roil the Global Economy
The Wall Street Journal 10/24/05
author: Andrew Browne
A global economy relying on China as a locomotive of growth had better get used to a lurching ride.
Last year, China contributed more to global economic growth than the U.S., Japan and the European Union combined, as it sucked in imports from around the world, including iron ore from Brazil, semiconductors from the U.S., palm oil from Malaysia and flat television screens from South Korea.
For much of this year, however, the big news has been the collapse in the growth of imports. Although imports of steel, copper and aluminum are starting to rise again and China's trade surplus in September narrowed to $7.6 billion from $10 billion in August, it is clear that China's appetite for imports has been blunted.
Exports, meanwhile, are booming. With slower demand at home that is mainly the result of a 2004 government crackdown on investment, Chinese factories have been dumping surplus products overseas －－ everything from cement to auto parts －－ undercutting manufacturers around the world.
The import-export trends prompted Nicholas Lardy, a Washington-based China expert at the Institute for International Economics, to conclude that China's impact on the global economy is moving to the negative.
One of the biggest factors hidden behind the changing import-export dynamic is a shift in China's manufacturing strategy: China is making much more of what its massive economy consumes. That's bound to cause more trade friction in the months ahead.
Dong Tao, chief Asia economist for Credit Suisse First Boston, says two factors now dominate the world economy: Chinese demand and U.S. interest rates. Of the two, Chinese demand may be the most unpredictable. As China furiously adds capacity to supply its own demand, its investment has reached the point in some areas where Chinese supply is flooding the world.
South African paper maker Sappi Ltd. estimates China has added 1.1 million tons of manufacturing capacity for coated paper just in the past year －－ a substantial addition to global output of 28 million tons. As a result, the company finds it harder and harder to raise prices. U.S. aluminum giant Alcoa Inc. has seen its share price sink by almost 40% since the start of 2004. Among its many woes: China has ratcheted up its aluminum production, making China less of an opportunity than Alcoa once expected.
Steel is another example of China's attempts to shift its massive appetite. This year, China turned from being the world's largest importer of steel to a net exporter. The gyrations in Chinese demand have pushed global steel prices down 30% since the start of the year.
More price shocks could be on the way. UBS estimates that China will add about 80 million tons of steel capacity this year as result of frenzied overinvestment. That is 1½； times South Korea's overall capacity, and three-quarters of U.S. capacity. China has already created a world glut for certain types of lower-grade steel. Now, a new wave of supply is on the way.
Korean steel giant Posco is hurting. It cut prices 6% to 9% in September for 11 products coming from its two large Korean steel plants because of oversupply from China, according to company officials. That's Posco's first major price cut in three years. Yet, in a jolting reversal, China swung back to being a net steel importer in July and August.
Another factor: As China moves rapidly up the technology ladder, multinationals using China as an export platform are increasingly sourcing parts from China instead of its neighbors. That trend won't stop anytime soon.
Critics accuse China of mercantilism －－ a deliberate effort to amass trade surpluses by suppressing imports and boosting exports. Charlene Barshefsky, who negotiated China's entry into the World Trade Organization as U.S. President Bill Clinton's trade representative, cautions against jumping to conclusions. She says China's import slowdown may be temporary, though if this is some sort of import-substitution strategy, that would be another matter and would draw a much different response.
Jonathan Anderson, a UBS AG economist in Hong Kong, agrees. He already sees signs of a turnaround. China is going to be right back in the buying game, he says, adding that no matter how much capacity China adds, it will never be enough in the long run to satisfy its immense demand.
Chinese central-bank chief Zhou Xiaochuan, in published remarks this month, acknowledged that the surging trade surplus is causing trade friction.
But there's no quick way to cut exports. China is now the final stop in a global manufacturing production line. The country takes in parts and raw materials from its Asian neighbors to assemble laptops, microwave ovens, paper shredders and electric motors for export using its cheap labor.
Asia has been feeling the pinch of China's declining import growth the most. China is by far the biggest export market for Asian countries: It takes 19% of Japan's total overseas sales, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. China has been a huge consumer of Asian steel, chemicals, plastics and high-tech parts.
The U.S. is feeling the impact as well. In deflecting pressure from Congress to curb Chinese goods pouring into the U.S., President Bush's administration for years has pointed to surging U.S. exports to China and said that China's overall trade surplus was small. Now, both of those arguments look hollow.
U.S. exports to China, while still growing, have fallen off substantially from their growth rate of last year. The two top U.S. export categories to China －－ machine goods and electrical products －－ actually decreased by approximately 5% in the first seven months of the year, compared with the same period last year. Sales of U.S. farm products also shrank during the same period. The last remaining fig leaf is falling away, says Frank Vargo of the Washington-based National Association of Manufacturers.
Charles Freeman, who until last month was one of the Bush administration's top China specialists at the U.S. Trade Representative's office, predicts that if China's export boom continues, there will be a flurry of anti-China trade bills in Congress by the spring of next year.
作者：底特律汽车人 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 <华尔街日报〉China's Wild Swings Can Roil the Global Economy -- 底特律汽车人 - (6325 Byte) 2005-10-24 周一, 23:14 (1252 reads)
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